Notts County 1–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cheltenham

A. Jatta 45+1'

E. Archer 89'

J. Thomas 75'

4/21/2025

League Two · Round 44Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Notts County46%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.11

Notts County

1.50

Cheltenham

1.11

Notts County creates 35% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

1.61

creates per match

1.06

1.16

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Notts County

1.61

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Notts County

1.16

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

72%

Notts County or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

54%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

23%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

78%

Notts County 2+ goals

44%

Notts County 3+ goals

19%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

67%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

30%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

62%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 95 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.61 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Notts County defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Notts County scores more

46%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

28%

Notts County at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Thomas

Cheltenham · M

8.0

Match Events

40'

42'

45+1'

46'

46'

L. Dulson← T. Backwell

61'

M. Taylor← T. Dieng

61'

A. Hay← G. Miller

67'

J. Jones← C. Grant

75'

J. Thomas↳ M. Taylor

82'

C. Whitaker← M. Traoré

82'

W. Jarvis← K. Gordon

89'

E. Archer↳ L. Dulson

90+2'

Arkell Jude-Boyd

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsCheltenham

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots8

9Corners6

16Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots8

4On Target3

10Off Target3

9Blocked2

14Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

416Total Passes256

321Accurate Passes161

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1