Notts County 1–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carlisle

A. Jatta 19'

1/28/2025

League Two · Round 29Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Notts County46%

×Draw26%

Carlisle28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Notts County

1.48

Carlisle

1.11

Notts County creates 33% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 115 away

1.61

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Notts County

1.61

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Notts County

1.16

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

72%

Notts County or Carlisle

74%

Draw or Carlisle

54%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

23%

Carlisle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

77%

Notts County 2+ goals

43%

Notts County 3+ goals

19%

Carlisle 1+ goals

67%

Carlisle 2+ goals

30%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

62%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 95 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.61 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Notts County defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Notts County scores more

46%

level

26%

Carlisle scores more

28%

Notts County at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

G. Abbott

Notts County · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

15'

19'

45+2'

63'

64'

W. Patching← S. Fusire

72'

C. Edwards← C. Grant

72'

Z. Johnson← R. McDonald

73'

K. Gordon← J. Jones

76'

Charlie McArthur

81'

E. Robson← E. Embleton

86'

David McGoldrick

90+2'

W. Jarvis← A. Jatta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsCarlisle

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots10

2Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target4

2Off Target4

4Blocked2

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

526Total Passes543

438Accurate Passes460

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1