Carlisle vs Notts County — League Two 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 94+ matches
Carlisle38%
Notts County36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 112 home / 94 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Carlisle ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches
Notts County away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 94 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Carlisle attack 1.26 + Notts County defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38
Notts County attack 1.44 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Carlisle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sampleNotts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford City
Cambridge United
Grimsby
Chesterfield
Barnet
Swindon Town
Oldham
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Accrington ST
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate Town
BarrowIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Carlisle host Notts County on Tuesday, 1 October 2024 at 18:45. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
League Two: Carlisle 0–2 Notts County
Notts County beat Carlisle 2-0 in League Two on October 1, 2024.
Goals: A. Jatta (10'), S. Robertson (34').
Carlisle controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 7.
The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.