Notts County 1–2 Barnet: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Barnet

J. Jones 36' (pen)

K. Tshimanga 69', 32'

4/18/2026

League Two · Round 44Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Notts County45%

×Draw25%

Barnet30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Notts County

1.54

Barnet

1.21

Notts County creates 27% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 62 away

1.61

creates per match

1.27

1.16

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Notts County

1.61

Barnet

1.27

allows per match

Notts County

1.16

Barnet

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

70%

Notts County or Barnet

75%

Draw or Barnet

55%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

23%

Barnet wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

79%

Notts County 2+ goals

45%

Notts County 3+ goals

20%

Barnet 1+ goals

70%

Barnet 2+ goals

34%

Barnet 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

60%

Barnet (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 95 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.61 + Barnet defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Barnet attack 1.27 + Notts County defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Notts County scores more

45%

level

25%

Barnet scores more

30%

Notts County at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

N. Tavares

Barnet · D

7.7

Match Events

32'

K. Tshimanga↳ R. Glover

36'

J. JonesPenalty

60'

Q. Kouhyar← K. Bennetts

60'

J. Luker← M. Dennis

61'

K. Smith← I. Kanu

61'

P. Chinedu← N. Ofoborh

69'

K. Tshimanga↳ C. Stead

75'

T. Hall← O. Norburn

80'

B. Winterburn← A. Hartigan

84'

B. Enoru← J. Jones

86'

D. Jaiyesimi← R. Glover

89'

Adam Senior

90'

Tyrese Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottsBarnet

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots14

1.28Expected Goals (xG)2.25

1Corners7

12Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target2

3Off Target11

2Blocked1

4Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

416Total Passes342

308Accurate Passes234

74%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1