Barnet 0–1 Notts County: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Notts County

T. Hall 90'

10/18/2025

League Two · Round 13The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Barnet40%

×Draw26%

Notts County35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.32

Barnet

1.43

Notts County

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 94 away

1.37

creates per match

1.44

1.21

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Barnet

1.37

Notts County

1.44

allows per match

Barnet

1.21

Notts County

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

65%

Barnet or Notts County

74%

Draw or Notts County

60%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

19%

Notts County wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

76%

Barnet 2+ goals

42%

Barnet 3+ goals

17%

Notts County 1+ goals

73%

Notts County 2+ goals

38%

Notts County 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

53%

Notts County (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.37 + Notts County defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Notts County attack 1.44 + Barnet defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barnet scores more

40%

level

26%

Notts County scores more

35%

Barnet at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

R. McDonald

Notts County · D

8.0

Match Events

21'

Rod McDonald

46'

Romoney Crichlow

46'

M. Dennis← T. Iorpenda

53'

Lee Ndlovu

64'

Adam Senior

65'

K. Bennetts← N. Tsaroulla

65'

Q. Kouhyar← J. Jones

67'

K. Smith← R. Crichlow-Noble

75'

C. Grant← A. Jatta

77'

O. Hawkins← L. Ndlovu

86'

L. Ness← J. Bedeau

90+5'

Tyrese Hall

90+6'

M. Shelton← A. Hartigan

90'

T. Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetNotts

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots4

12Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots4

5On Target1

6Off Target1

7Blocked2

7Inside Box2

11Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

381Total Passes305

259Accurate Passes176

68%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0