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Nottingham Forest W vs Boldmere St. Michaels W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Nottingham Forest W
Nottingham Forest W
FT
3 – 1
Boldmere St. Michaels W
Boldmere St. Michaels W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundGrange Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nottingham Forest W44%
×Draw19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest W
2.65
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest W
3.00
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.86

allows per match

Nottingham Forest W
3.00
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.29

finishing

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par
Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest W ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest W or draw
63%
Nottingham Forest W or Boldmere St. Michaels W
81%
Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W
56%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+
27%
Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals
93%
Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals
74%
Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals
48%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals
91%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals
69%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)
54%
Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.00 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.65

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Nottingham Forest W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nottingham Forest W scores more
44%
level
19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more
37%

Nottingham Forest W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nottingham Forest W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest W vs Boldmere St. Michaels W

Nottingham Forest W beat Boldmere St. Michaels W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Grange Park in Long Eaton, Derbyshire.