Boldmere St. Michaels W 1–3 Nottingham Forest W

Boldmere St. Michaels W

1 – 3

Nottingham Forest W

11/3/2024

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundTrevor Brown Memorial Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W55%

×Draw17%

Nottingham Forest W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boldmere St. Michaels WExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.41

2.46

Boldmere St. Michaels W

3.41

Nottingham Forest W

2.46

Boldmere St. Michaels W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

5.67

creates per match

3.92

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Boldmere St. Michaels W

5.67

Nottingham Forest W

3.92

allows per match

Boldmere St. Michaels W

1.00

Nottingham Forest W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boldmere St. Michaels W ↓

Nottingham Forest W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Boldmere St. Michaels W or draw

72%

Boldmere St. Michaels W or Nottingham Forest W

83%

Draw or Nottingham Forest W

45%

Winning margin

Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+

37%

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals

96%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals

85%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals

64%

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals

91%

Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)

66%

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Boldmere St. Michaels W at home — creates 5.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest W away — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 5.67 + Nottingham Forest W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 3.41

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.92 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more

55%

level

17%

Nottingham Forest W scores more

28%

Boldmere St. Michaels W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Boldmere St. Michaels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff