Nottingham Forest 0–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Norwich

K. Dowell 13'

T. Pukki 9'

3/17/2021

Championship · Round 37The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest40%

×Draw27%

Norwich33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Nottingham Forest

1.35

Norwich

1.21

Nottingham Forest creates 12% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 138 away

1.41

creates per match

1.43

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Norwich

1.43

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Norwich

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

67%

Nottingham Forest or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

60%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

18%

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

74%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

39%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

15%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

34%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

54%

Norwich (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Norwich defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Norwich attack 1.43 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

40%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

33%

Nottingham Forest at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Rupp

Norwich · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

T. Pukki↳ L. Rupp

13'

K. Dowell↳ L. Rupp

48'

Oliver Skipp

76'

A. Mighten← L. Freeman

76'

L. Taylor← L. Grabban

85'

J. Sørensen← L. Rupp

86'

G. Murray← R. Yates

88'

J. Hugill← T. Pukki

88'

O. Hernández← K. Dowell

90+3'

A. Tettey← T. Cantwell

90+3'

C. Zimmermann← O. Skipp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamNorwich

Overview

33%Possession67%

5Total Shots22

4Corners5

13Fouls6

Shots

5Total Shots22

1On Target7

4Off Target7

0Blocked8

5Inside Box15

0Outside Box7

Passing

33%Possession67%

352Total Passes719

285Accurate Passes652

81%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1