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Norwich vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
12/26/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Norwich42%
×Draw27%
Nottingham Forest31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.37
Nottingham Forest
1.15

Norwich creates 19% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 95 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.71
Nottingham Forest
1.16

allows per match

Norwich
1.13
Nottingham Forest
1.03

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Nottingham Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
69%
Norwich or Nottingham Forest
73%
Draw or Nottingham Forest
58%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
20%
Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
75%
Norwich 2+ goals
40%
Norwich 3+ goals
16%
Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
68%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
32%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
57%
Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.71 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Norwich defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Norwich scores more
42%
level
27%
Nottingham Forest scores more
31%

Norwich at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norwich vs Nottingham Forest

Norwich and Nottingham Forest drew 3-3 in Championship on December 26, 2018.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.