Nottingham Forest 2–1 Derby: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Derby

B. Johnson 82'

L. Grabban 48'

T. Lawrence 88' (pen)

1/22/2022

Championship · Round 28The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest48%

×Draw26%

Derby26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Nottingham Forest

1.52

Derby

1.04

Nottingham Forest creates 46% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 142 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Derby

1.07

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Derby

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

74%

Nottingham Forest or Derby

74%

Draw or Derby

52%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

24%

Derby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

78%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

45%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

20%

Derby 1+ goals

65%

Derby 2+ goals

28%

Derby 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

65%

Derby (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Derby away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Derby attack 1.07 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

48%

level

26%

Derby scores more

26%

Nottingham Forest at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

J. Garner

Nottingham Forest · M

7.5

Match Events

31'

35'

48'

51'

56'

60'

L. Plange← C. Kazim-Richards

60'

R. Morrison← F. Ebosele

68'

P. Zinckernagel← K. Davis

78'

L. Sibley← L. Thompson

82'

B. Johnson↳ P. Zinckernagel

84'

L. Taylor← L. Grabban

88'

T. LawrencePenalty

89'

89'

90+7'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamDerby

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots4

4Corners2

17Fouls22

Shots

13Total Shots4

6On Target1

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

6Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

333Total Passes375

229Accurate Passes276

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls22

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2