Derby 1–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

C. Martin 90+7'

J. Lolley 12'

7/4/2020

Championship · Round 41Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Derby37%

×Draw29%

Nottingham Forest34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.07

Derby

1.13

Nottingham Forest

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 95 away

1.23

creates per match

1.16

0.99

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Derby

1.23

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Derby

0.99

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Derby or draw

66%

Derby or Nottingham Forest

71%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

63%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

68%

Derby 2+ goals

31%

Derby 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

66%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

29%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

52%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.99 · 141 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.23 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Derby defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more

37%

level

29%

Nottingham Forest scores more

34%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Martin

Derby · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

J. Lolley↳ B. Watson

59'

S. Ameobi← Nuno Da Costa

60'

Tiago Silva← S. Sow

66'

F. Jozefzoon← D. Holmes

66'

M. Waghorn← J. Knight

77'

A. Diakhaby← J. Lolley

80'

Louie Sibley

81'

M. Lowe← C. Forsyth

82'

G. Shinnie← L. Sibley

89'

M. Whittaker← M. Bird

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+1'

A. Mighten← L. Grabban

90+7'

C. Martin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyNottingham

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots10

3Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

9Inside Box3

1Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

586Total Passes271

519Accurate Passes211

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1