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Nottingham Forest vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
J. Garner 61'
B. Johnson 25'
4/6/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nottingham Forest42%
×Draw27%
Coventry31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest
1.35
Coventry
1.12

Nottingham Forest creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 44 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest
1.33
Coventry
1.57

allows per match

Nottingham Forest
0.67
Coventry
1.36

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw
69%
Nottingham Forest or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
58%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
19%
Coventry wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
74%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
39%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
15%
Coventry 1+ goals
67%
Coventry 2+ goals
31%
Coventry 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
58%
Coventry (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.33 + Coventry defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Coventry attack 1.57 + Nottingham Forest defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more
42%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
31%

Nottingham Forest at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
J. GarnerNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · M
8.5

Match Events

21'
Joe Worrall
25'
B. Johnson
39'
Jake Bidwell
54'
Philip Zinckernagel
58'
J. Lolley← P. Zinckernagel
61'
J. Garner↳ K. Davis
66'
I. Maatsen← T. Kane
66'
F. Tavares← B. Sheaf
77'
Dominic Hyam
78'
S. Surridge← K. Davis
78'
L. Grabban← B. Johnson
85'
R. Howley← G. Hamer
90+2'
Jack Colback
90+7'
Callum O'Hare

Possession

52%Nottingham

Shots

18Nottingham

Pass accuracy

52%Nottingham

Statistics

NottinghamCoventry
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots13
7Corners2
9Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots13
3On Target5
10Off Target6
5Blocked2
11Inside Box5
7Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
472Total Passes432
383Accurate Passes330
81%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls9
3Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest vs Coventry

Nottingham Forest beat Coventry 2-0 in Championship on April 6, 2022.

Goals: B. Johnson (25'), J. Garner (61').

Nottingham Forest controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at The City Ground in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.