Coventry 1–2 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nottingham Forest

M. Biamou 17'

M. Rose 53' (OG)

L. Grabban 22'

2/2/2021

Championship · Round 26St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Coventry37%

×Draw27%

Nottingham Forest36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.23

Coventry

1.26

Nottingham Forest

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 6 away

1.84

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Coventry

1.84

Nottingham Forest

1.33

allows per match

Coventry

1.14

Nottingham Forest

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

64%

Coventry or Nottingham Forest

73%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

63%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

36%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

71%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

35%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

51%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.84 + Nottingham Forest defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nottingham Forest attack 1.33 + Coventry defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coventry scores more

37%

level

27%

Nottingham Forest scores more

36%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. James

Coventry · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

M. Biamou↳ C. O'Hare

22'

L. Grabban↳ S. Ameobi

46'

M. Rose← B. Sheaf

46'

J. Da Costa← J. Pask

46'

L. Freeman← S. Ameobi

53'

Callum O'Hare

53'

M. RoseOwn goal

54'

Anthony Knockaert

71'

A. Bakayoko← V. Gyökeres

71'

J. Colback← Cafú

74'

Filip Krovinović

76'

G. Murray← L. Grabban

84'

T. Blackett← F. Krovinović

90'

Gaëtan Bong

90'

Jack Colback

90+11'

W. Jobello← A. Bakayoko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryNottingham

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots6

6Corners5

11Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

531Total Passes330

409Accurate Passes209

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0