Nottingham Forest 2–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

J. Garner 55'

B. Johnson 38'

2/26/2022

Championship · Round 35The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest46%

×Draw26%

Bristol City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Nottingham Forest

1.45

Bristol City

1.07

Nottingham Forest creates 36% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 188 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Bristol City

1.15

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Bristol City

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

72%

Nottingham Forest or Bristol City

74%

Draw or Bristol City

54%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

22%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

77%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

42%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

18%

Bristol City 1+ goals

66%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

62%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

46%

level

26%

Bristol City scores more

28%

Nottingham Forest at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

J. Garner

Nottingham Forest · M

8.3

Match Events

9'

Cameron Pring

32'

Brennan Johnson

35'

Alex Scott

38'

B. Johnson↳ D. Spence

46'

R. Cundy← C. Pring

55'

J. Garner↳ M. Lowe

58'

N. Wells← C. Martin

64'

M. James← H. Massengo

69'

Tomáš Kalas

73'

S. Surridge← K. Davis

82'

R. Yates← P. Zinckernagel

87'

Cafú← J. Garner

90+4'

Timm Klose

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamBristol

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots5

11Corners5

9Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target1

4Off Target2

6Blocked2

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

394Total Passes340

300Accurate Passes240

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2