Bristol City 1–2 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nottingham Forest

A. Scott 39'

L. Taylor 90+2', 90+1' (pen)

10/19/2021

Championship · Round 13Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Bristol City35%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.18

Bristol City

1.16

Nottingham Forest

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 191 home / 95 away

1.28

creates per match

1.16

1.20

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Bristol City

1.28

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

64%

Bristol City or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

65%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

69%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

33%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

49%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 191 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.28 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bristol City scores more

35%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

36%

Nottingham Forest at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

L. Taylor

Nottingham Forest · F

8.6

Match Events

39'

A. Scott

66'

Alex Scott

66'

H. Massengo← C. Martin

66'

A. Mighten← Tobias Figueiredo

77'

K. Palmer← A. Scott

77'

J. Lolley← P. Zinckernagel

81'

L. Taylor← L. Grabban

83'

C. O'Dowda← N. Wells

90+1'

L. TaylorPenalty

90+2'

L. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolNottingham

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots15

1Corners9

7Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target6

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

278Total Passes542

184Accurate Passes425

66%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4