Nottingham Forest 1–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

E. Bennett 52' (OG)

D. Graham 49'

J. Rothwell 29'

4/13/2019

Championship · Round 42City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest45%

×Draw27%

Blackburn28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Nottingham Forest

1.42

Blackburn

1.07

Nottingham Forest creates 33% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 194 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

72%

Nottingham Forest or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

55%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

22%

Blackburn wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

76%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

41%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

17%

Blackburn 1+ goals

66%

Blackburn 2+ goals

29%

Blackburn 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

61%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

45%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

28%

Nottingham Forest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Rothwell

Blackburn · M

8.1

Match Events

29'

J. Rothwell

49'

D. Graham

52'

E. BennettOwn goal

56'

Ryan Yates

63'

J. Nuttall← D. Graham

65'

68'

69'

69'

74'

75'

João Carvalho← L. Grabban

77'

B. Osborn← R. Yates

82'

Derrick Williams

86'

B. Brereton← B. Dack

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamBlackburn

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots15

3Corners5

12Fouls19

Shots

22Total Shots15

1On Target9

12Off Target2

9Blocked4

12Inside Box13

10Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

475Total Passes362

368Accurate Passes252

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3