Nottingham Forest 1–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

P. Zinckernagel 69'

D. Lenihan 86'

Daniel Ayala 47'

8/18/2021

Championship · Round 3The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nottingham Forest49%

×Draw28%

Blackburn23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.82

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Blackburn

0.82

Nottingham Forest creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 44 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

0.67

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.33

Blackburn

0.98

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

0.67

Blackburn

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

77%

Nottingham Forest or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

51%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

23%

Blackburn wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

74%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

38%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

56%

Blackburn 2+ goals

20%

Blackburn 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

68%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.33 + Blackburn defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 0.98 + Nottingham Forest defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

49%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

23%

Nottingham Forest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

P. Zinckernagel

Nottingham Forest · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

F. Back← J. Osei-Tutu

47'

Daniel Ayala↳ H. Pickering

54'

Jack Colback

64'

João Carvalho← A. Mighten

66'

Sam Gallagher

69'

P. Zinckernagel↳ L. Grabban

71'

Hayden Carter

74'

J. Davenport← T. Dolan

74'

H. Chapman← J. Rothwell

85'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

85'

T. Fornah← J. Colback

86'

D. Lenihan

90'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

90'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

90+2'

Ben Brereton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamBlackburn

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots9

3Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target7

1Off Target1

2Blocked1

1Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

435Total Passes283

329Accurate Passes181

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1