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Nottingham Forest vs Blackburn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Preview
10:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
7/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club FriendliesEstadio da Nora
55%
Blackburn
model favours
17%28%55%

Nottingham Forest and Blackburn have never met before

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nottingham Forest17%
×Draw28%
Blackburn55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest
0.64
Blackburn
1.40

Blackburn creates 119% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest
0.67
Blackburn
0.80

allows per match

Nottingham Forest
2.00
Blackburn
0.60

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw
45%
Nottingham Forest or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
83%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
4%
Blackburn wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
47%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
14%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
3%
Blackburn 1+ goals
75%
Blackburn 2+ goals
41%
Blackburn 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
24%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 0.67 + Blackburn defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Blackburn attack 0.80 + Nottingham Forest defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more
17%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
55%

Blackburn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Forest
DLDLW
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nottingham Forest host Blackburn

July 22, 2026: Nottingham Forest take on Blackburn in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nottingham Forest host Blackburn at Estadio da Nora.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.