Nottingham Forest 3–0 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Barnsley

1/25/2022

Championship · Round 26The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Nottingham Forest48%

×Draw27%

Barnsley26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.98

Nottingham Forest

1.45

Barnsley

0.98

Nottingham Forest creates 48% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 76 away

1.35

creates per match

0.93

1.03

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.35

Barnsley

0.93

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.03

Barnsley

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

74%

Nottingham Forest or Barnsley

73%

Draw or Barnsley

52%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

24%

Barnsley wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

77%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

42%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

18%

Barnsley 1+ goals

62%

Barnsley 2+ goals

26%

Barnsley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

65%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.03 · 92 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.35 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

48%

level

27%

Barnsley scores more

26%

Nottingham Forest at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff