Barnsley 2–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

11/21/2020

Championship · Round 12Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Barnsley32%

×Draw29%

Nottingham Forest39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.19

Barnsley

1.06

Nottingham Forest

1.19

Nottingham Forest creates 12% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 92 away

1.13

creates per match

1.12

1.26

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Barnsley

1.13

Nottingham Forest

1.12

allows per match

Barnsley

1.26

Nottingham Forest

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

61%

Barnsley or Nottingham Forest

71%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

68%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

13%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

65%

Barnsley 2+ goals

29%

Barnsley 3+ goals

9%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

33%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

45%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.13 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nottingham Forest attack 1.12 + Barnsley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more

32%

level

29%

Nottingham Forest scores more

39%

Nottingham Forest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff