Nottingham Forest U21 2–0 Sunderland U21

Nottingham Forest U21

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland U21

A. Berry 83'

L. Sillah 71'

11/3/2025

League #702 · Round 8Loughborough University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nottingham Forest U2161%

×Draw21%

Sunderland U2118%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U21Expected goals in this matchSunderland U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.04

Nottingham Forest U21

2.07

Sunderland U21

1.04

Nottingham Forest U21 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.64

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.64

Sunderland U21

1.00

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.07

Sunderland U21

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U21+0.00on par

Sunderland U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U21 ↓

Sunderland U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U21 or draw

82%

Nottingham Forest U21 or Sunderland U21

79%

Draw or Sunderland U21

39%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U21 wins by 2+

37%

Sunderland U21 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U21 1+ goals

87%

Nottingham Forest U21 2+ goals

61%

Nottingham Forest U21 3+ goals

34%

Sunderland U21 1+ goals

65%

Sunderland U21 2+ goals

28%

Sunderland U21 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U21 (draw refunded)

77%

Sunderland U21 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U21 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Sunderland U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.64 + Sunderland U21 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Sunderland U21 attack 1.00 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nottingham Forest U21 scores more

61%

level

21%

Sunderland U21 scores more

18%

Nottingham Forest U21 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Jones← M. Burke

51'

J. Neild← Z. Johnson

61'

K. Thompson← Z. Blake

67'

F. Holcroft

71'

L. Sillah↳ K. Thompson

72'

B. McClure← F. Smith

74'

J. Waters← F. Scott

83'

A. Berry↳ K. Thompson

87'

C. Dinsdale← J. Whittaker

90+1'

B. McClure

90+1'

R. Walsh

90+2'

J. Thompson

Nottingham

Sunderland

1

Metcalf

2

Holcroft

5

▼

Johnson

6

Kindon

3

Lightfoot

8

▼

Whittaker

4

▼

Burke

11

Walsh

10

Middlemas

7

▼

9

1

4

6

5

2

7

▼

Smith

8

Whitehall

3

Newton

10

▼

Blake

9

⚽

Sillah

11

⚽

Berry

Manager: Warren Garton Joyce

61'▲K. Thompson←▼Z. Blake

72'▲B. McClure←▼F. Smith

Nottingham Forest U21 substitutes

12Willows14Anijsko15Thompson17Modupe16McClure

Manager: Graeme Murty

46'▲J. Jones←▼M. Burke

51'▲J. Neild←▼Z. Johnson

74'▲J. Waters←▼F. Scott

87'▲C. Dinsdale←▼J. Whittaker

Sunderland U21 substitutes

13Cowan12Neild14Jones15Waters16Dinsdale