Nottingham Forest U21 0–5 Sunderland U21

Nottingham Forest U21

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Sunderland U21

C. Kelly 90+1'

Eliezer Mayenda 31', 19'

M. Spellman 29'

T. Watson 26'

1/12/2024

League #702 · Group 1 - 13Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nottingham Forest U2143%

×Draw23%

Sunderland U2134%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U21Expected goals in this matchSunderland U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.56

Nottingham Forest U21

1.77

Sunderland U21

1.56

Nottingham Forest U21 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.80

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.53

Sunderland U21

1.80

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.33

Sunderland U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U21+0.00on par

Sunderland U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U21 ↓

Sunderland U21 →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U21 or draw

66%

Nottingham Forest U21 or Sunderland U21

77%

Draw or Sunderland U21

57%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U21 wins by 2+

23%

Sunderland U21 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U21 1+ goals

83%

Nottingham Forest U21 2+ goals

53%

Nottingham Forest U21 3+ goals

26%

Sunderland U21 1+ goals

79%

Sunderland U21 2+ goals

46%

Sunderland U21 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U21 (draw refunded)

56%

Sunderland U21 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U21 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Sunderland U21 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.53 + Sunderland U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sunderland U21 attack 1.80 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nottingham Forest U21 scores more

43%

level

23%

Sunderland U21 scores more

34%

Nottingham Forest U21 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Eliezer Mayenda↳ T. Pembélé

26'

T. Watson

29'

M. Spellman↳ Eliezer Mayenda

31'

43'

45+3'

56'

66'

B. Middlemas← H. Jones

66'

74'

76'

80'

84'

O. Bainbridge← T. Chiabi

88'

J. Ryder← M. Burke

90+1'

C. Kelly↳ E. Taylor

Nottingham

Sunderland

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2A

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Joyce

74'▲A. Konaté←▼B. Perry

76'▲K. McAdam←▼J. Hanks

80'▲M. Norkett←▼D. Osong

Nottingham Forest U21 substitutes

14Konaté15McAdam17Norkett13Willows16Nadin

Manager: G. Murty

66'▲B. Middlemas←▼H. Jones

66'▲C. Kelly←▼T. Watson

84'▲O. Bainbridge←▼T. Chiabi

88'▲J. Ryder←▼M. Burke

Sunderland U21 substitutes

15Middlemas16Kelly12Bainbridge14Ryder13Cameron

League #702: Nottingham Forest U21 0–5 Sunderland U21

Sunderland U21 beat Nottingham Forest U21 5-0 in League #702 on January 12, 2024.

Goals: Eliezer Mayenda (19', 31'), T. Watson (26'), M. Spellman (29'), C. Kelly (90+1').

The match was played at Meadow Lane in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.

Nottingham Forest U21 vs Sunderland U21 — League #702 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #702: Nottingham Forest U21 0–5 Sunderland U21