Nottingham Forest U21 1–0 Leeds United U21

Nottingham Forest U21

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leeds United U21

A. Donnelly 86'

1/6/2023

League #702 · Group 2 - 6Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nottingham Forest U2148%

×Draw25%

Leeds United U2127%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham Forest U21Expected goals in this matchLeeds United U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

Nottingham Forest U21

1.63

Leeds United U21

1.15

Nottingham Forest U21 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

1.64

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.64

Leeds United U21

1.22

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U21

1.07

Leeds United U21

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest U21+0.00on par

Leeds United U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U21 ↓

Leeds United U21 →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U21 or draw

73%

Nottingham Forest U21 or Leeds United U21

75%

Draw or Leeds United U21

52%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U21 wins by 2+

25%

Leeds United U21 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U21 1+ goals

80%

Nottingham Forest U21 2+ goals

48%

Nottingham Forest U21 3+ goals

22%

Leeds United U21 1+ goals

68%

Leeds United U21 2+ goals

32%

Leeds United U21 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U21 (draw refunded)

64%

Leeds United U21 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U21 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Leeds United U21 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.64 + Leeds United U21 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Leeds United U21 attack 1.22 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nottingham Forest U21 scores more

48%

level

25%

Leeds United U21 scores more

27%

Nottingham Forest U21 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

C. Crew

65'

J. Nadin← J. Gardner

65'

S. McGurk← Mateo Joseph

65'

65'

78'

86'

86'

A. Donnelly↳ J. McDonnell

88'

M. Spencer← J. Snowdon

89'

J. Nadin

90+2'

J. Perkins

90+4'

J. Hanks← A. Gibson-Hammond

Nottingham

Leeds

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Rogers

65'▲J. Nadin←▼J. Gardner

90+4'▲J. Hanks←▼A. Gibson-Hammond

Nottingham Forest U21 substitutes

16Nadin14Hanks15Johnson17Hemmings12Hammond

Manager: M. Skubala

65'▲S. McGurk←▼Mateo Joseph

65'▲M. Dean←▼S. Perkins

65'▲J. Debayo←▼C. Drameh

88'▲M. Spencer←▼J. Snowdon

Leeds United U21 substitutes

14McGurk15Dean16Debayo17Spencer12Christy

League #702: Nottingham Forest U21 1–0 Leeds United U21

Nottingham Forest U21 beat Leeds United U21 1-0 in League #702 on January 6, 2023.

Goals: A. Donnelly (86').

The match was played at Meadow Lane in Nottingham, Nottinghamshire.

Nottingham Forest U21 vs Leeds United U21 — League #702 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #702: Nottingham Forest U21 1–0 Leeds United U21