Leeds United U21 3–0 Nottingham Forest U21

Leeds United U21

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nottingham Forest U21

K. Moore 54'

J. Chilokoa-Mullen 38'

G. Rutter 20'

5/15/2023

League #702 · Promotion Play-offs - FinalElland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Leeds United U2133%

×Draw25%

Nottingham Forest U2141%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leeds United U21Expected goals in this matchNottingham Forest U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.48

Leeds United U21

1.30

Nottingham Forest U21

1.48

Nottingham Forest U21 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.75

creates per match

1.07

1.90

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Leeds United U21

1.75

Nottingham Forest U21

1.07

allows per match

Leeds United U21

1.90

Nottingham Forest U21

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds United U21+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds United U21 ↓

Nottingham Forest U21 →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leeds United U21 or draw

59%

Leeds United U21 or Nottingham Forest U21

75%

Draw or Nottingham Forest U21

67%

Winning margin

Leeds United U21 wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest U21 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Leeds United U21 1+ goals

73%

Leeds United U21 2+ goals

37%

Leeds United U21 3+ goals

14%

Nottingham Forest U21 1+ goals

77%

Nottingham Forest U21 2+ goals

43%

Nottingham Forest U21 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Leeds United U21 (draw refunded)

45%

Nottingham Forest U21 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leeds United U21 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Nottingham Forest U21 away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leeds United U21 attack 1.75 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.07 + Leeds United U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leeds United U21 scores more

33%

level

25%

Nottingham Forest U21 scores more

41%

Nottingham Forest U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Rutter↳ Mateo Joseph

38'

J. Chilokoa-Mullen↳ C. Allen

46'

46'

54'

57'

62'

J. Larsson← B. Hammond

78'

L. Thomas← G. Rutter

78'

M. Spencer← S. McGurk

84'

J. Debayo← C. Allen

85'

C. Ferguson← Mateo Joseph

89'

H. Christy← D. van den Heuvel

Leeds

Nottingham

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rutter

Perkins

▼

Joseph

Manager: M. Skubala

78'▲L. Thomas←▼G. Rutter

78'▲M. Spencer←▼S. McGurk

84'▲J. Debayo←▼C. Allen

85'▲C. Ferguson←▼Mateo Joseph

89'▲H. Christy←▼D. van den Heuvel

Leeds United U21 substitutes

14Thomas16Spencer17Debayo3Ferguson12Christy

Manager: W. Joyce

46'▲A. Mighten←▼D. Osong

46'▲J. Perkins←▼J. Hanks

62'▲J. Larsson←▼B. Hammond

Nottingham Forest U21 substitutes

14Mighten16Perkins18Larsson12Willows17Thompson