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Nottingham Forest U18 vs Leeds United U18 — League #695 2026

Nottingham Forest U18
Nottingham Forest U18
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leeds United U18
Leeds United U18
9/28/2024League #695League #695 · North - 6Nottingham Forest Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nottingham Forest U1868%
×Draw17%
Leeds United U1815%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nottingham Forest U18
2.63
Leeds United U18
1.18

Nottingham Forest U18 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nottingham Forest U18
1.94
Leeds United U18
1.00

allows per match

Nottingham Forest U18
1.35
Leeds United U18
3.33

finishing

Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par
Leeds United U18+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest U18 ↓

Leeds United U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest U18 or draw
85%
Nottingham Forest U18 or Leeds United U18
83%
Draw or Leeds United U18
32%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+
46%
Leeds United U18 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals
93%
Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals
73%
Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals
48%
Leeds United U18 1+ goals
69%
Leeds United U18 2+ goals
33%
Leeds United U18 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)
82%
Leeds United U18 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest U18 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Leeds United U18 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 1.94 + Leeds United U18 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.63

Leeds United U18 attack 1.00 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Nottingham Forest U18 scores more
68%
level
17%
Leeds United U18 scores more
15%

Nottingham Forest U18 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nottingham Forest U18 vs Leeds United U18

Nottingham Forest U18 beat Leeds United U18 4-1 in League #695 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Nottingham Forest Football Academy in West Bridgford, Nottingham.