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Leeds United U18 vs Nottingham Forest U18 — League #695 2026

Leeds United U18
Leeds United U18
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nottingham Forest U18
Nottingham Forest U18
1/13/2024League #695League #695 · North - 14Thorp Arch Grange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leeds United U1842%
×Draw20%
Nottingham Forest U1838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds United U18
2.22
Nottingham Forest U18
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Leeds United U18
1.67
Nottingham Forest U18
2.23

allows per match

Leeds United U18
2.00
Nottingham Forest U18
2.77

finishing

Leeds United U18+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest U18+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds United U18 ↓

Nottingham Forest U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Leeds United U18 or draw
62%
Leeds United U18 or Nottingham Forest U18
80%
Draw or Nottingham Forest U18
58%

Winning margin

Leeds United U18 wins by 2+
24%
Nottingham Forest U18 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leeds United U18 1+ goals
89%
Leeds United U18 2+ goals
65%
Leeds United U18 3+ goals
38%
Nottingham Forest U18 1+ goals
88%
Nottingham Forest U18 2+ goals
62%
Nottingham Forest U18 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Leeds United U18 (draw refunded)
52%
Nottingham Forest U18 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds United U18 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest U18 away — creates 2.23, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds United U18 attack 1.67 + Nottingham Forest U18 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.22

Nottingham Forest U18 attack 2.23 + Leeds United U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leeds United U18 scores more
42%
level
20%
Nottingham Forest U18 scores more
38%

Leeds United U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leeds United U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leeds United U18 vs Nottingham Forest U18

Nottingham Forest U18 beat Leeds United U18 2-1 in League #695 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Thorp Arch Grange in Thorp Arch, Leeds.