Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Notre Dame vs Ellerton — Premier League 2019

Notre Dame
Notre Dame
FT
2 – 3
Ellerton
Ellerton
6/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Notre Dame25%
×Draw19%
Ellerton55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notre Dame
1.65
Ellerton
2.47

Ellerton creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Notre Dame
1.92
Ellerton
2.17

allows per match

Notre Dame
2.77
Ellerton
1.37

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par
Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

Ellerton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw
45%
Notre Dame or Ellerton
81%
Draw or Ellerton
75%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+
12%
Ellerton wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals
81%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
49%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
23%
Ellerton 1+ goals
91%
Ellerton 2+ goals
70%
Ellerton 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)
32%
Ellerton (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Ellerton away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.92 + Ellerton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ellerton attack 2.17 + Notre Dame defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Notre Dame scores more
25%
level
19%
Ellerton scores more
55%

Ellerton at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Notre Dame 2–3 Ellerton

Ellerton beat Notre Dame 3-2 in Premier League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.