Ellerton 1–1 Notre Dame: Result & Stats

Ellerton

FT

1 – 1

Notre Dame

1/21/2023

Premier League · Round 1Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ellerton44%

×Draw21%

Notre Dame34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EllertonExpected goals in this matchNotre Dame

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.80

Ellerton

2.06

Notre Dame

1.80

Ellerton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

2.22

1.38

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Ellerton

1.95

Notre Dame

2.22

allows per match

Ellerton

1.38

Notre Dame

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Notre Dame →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw

66%

Ellerton or Notre Dame

79%

Draw or Notre Dame

56%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+

25%

Notre Dame wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals

87%

Ellerton 2+ goals

61%

Ellerton 3+ goals

34%

Notre Dame 1+ goals

83%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

54%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)

56%

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 1.95 + Notre Dame defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.06

Notre Dame attack 2.22 + Ellerton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ellerton scores more

44%

level

21%

Notre Dame scores more

34%

Ellerton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff