Norwich vs Wrexham — Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 18+ matches
Norwich49%
Wrexham26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Norwich creates 46% more chances
Season form · 53 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Norwich ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Norwich at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 53 matches
Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Norwich attack 1.51 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56
Wrexham attack 0.86 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Norwich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesPlaying styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Coventry
Ipswich
Millwall
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Hull CityWrexham
DerbyNorwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke City
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford United
Sheffield WednesdayIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Norwich host Wrexham on Saturday, 5 December 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Championship 2018/2019 season.
Norwich face Wrexham (Championship)
Championship returns with Norwich hosting Wrexham. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Norwich host Wrexham at Carrow Road.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.