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Norwich vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
15:00
Swansea
Swansea
2/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Carrow Road
Big match
45%
Norwich
model favours
45%25%30%

Swansea score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Norwich45%
×Draw25%
Swansea30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.54
Swansea
1.20

Norwich creates 28% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 49 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.52
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Norwich
1.29
Swansea
1.55

finishing

Norwich+0.18scores more
Swansea-0.02on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
70%
Norwich or Swansea
75%
Draw or Swansea
55%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
23%
Swansea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
79%
Norwich 2+ goals
45%
Norwich 3+ goals
20%
Swansea 1+ goals
70%
Swansea 2+ goals
34%
Swansea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
60%
Swansea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 54 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Swansea defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Swansea attack 1.10 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more
45%
level
25%
Swansea scores more
30%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Swansea’s matches
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Norwich
Balanced
Swansea
Balanced
55%Possession57%
82%Pass accuracy81%
12.4Shots12.0
1.35xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichSwansea

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Norwich
2
Draws
5
Swansea
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
1–11–25–10–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWDWL
Swansea
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich face Swansea (Championship)

Championship returns with Norwich hosting Swansea. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Norwich host Swansea at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.