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Norwich vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
10/6/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 51+ matches

Norwich47%
×Draw25%
Stoke City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.58
Stoke City
1.16

Norwich creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 51 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.54
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Norwich
1.26
Stoke City
1.62

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more
Stoke City-0.29scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
72%
Norwich or Stoke City
75%
Draw or Stoke City
53%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
24%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
79%
Norwich 2+ goals
47%
Norwich 3+ goals
21%
Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
32%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
63%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Stoke City defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more
47%
level
25%
Stoke City scores more
28%

Norwich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Norwich vs Stoke City

Stoke City beat Norwich 1-0 in Championship on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.