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Norwich vs Stoke City — Premier League 2026

Norwich
Norwich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
R. Martin 28'
M. Diouf 11'
8/22/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich34%
×Draw26%
Stoke City40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.29
Stoke City
1.42

Stoke City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 74 away

creates per match

Norwich
0.98
Stoke City
0.91

allows per match

Norwich
1.93
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
60%
Norwich or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
66%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
15%
Stoke City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
72%
Norwich 2+ goals
37%
Norwich 3+ goals
14%
Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
41%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
46%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norwich scores more
34%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
40%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
R. BradyNorwichNorwich · D
8.0

Match Events

11'
M. Diouf↳ X. Shaqiri
28'
R. Martin↳ N. Redmond
45'
Russell Martin
47'
Sebastien Bassong
57'
S. Ireland← I. Afellay
57'
Joselu← M. Arnautović
62'
Alexander Tettey
77'
B. Johnson← W. Hoolahan
79'
C. Adam← M. van Ginkel
82'
Steven Whittaker
85'
Erik Pieters
86'
G. O'Neil← J. Howson

Possession

42%Norwich

Shots

20Norwich

Pass accuracy

48%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichStoke
Overview
42%Possession58%
20Total Shots6
9Corners0
0Fouls0
Shots
20Total Shots6
7On Target1
8Off Target4
5Blocked1
10Inside Box4
10Outside Box2
Passing
42%Possession58%
326Total Passes467
256Accurate Passes392
79%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
0Fouls0
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Premier League: Norwich 1–1 Stoke City

Norwich and Stoke City drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 22, 2015.

Goals: M. Diouf (11'), R. Martin (28').

Stoke City controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 20.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.