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Norwich vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
10/1/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Norwich33%
×Draw25%
Leeds41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.30
Leeds
1.48

Leeds creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 7 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.54
Leeds
1.63

allows per match

Norwich
1.34
Leeds
1.06

finishing

Norwich+0.14scores more
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
59%
Norwich or Leeds
75%
Draw or Leeds
67%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
15%
Leeds wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
73%
Norwich 2+ goals
37%
Norwich 3+ goals
14%
Leeds 1+ goals
77%
Leeds 2+ goals
43%
Leeds 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
45%
Leeds (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.34 · 34 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leeds attack 1.63 + Norwich defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norwich scores more
33%
level
25%
Leeds scores more
41%

Leeds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich 1 – 1 Leeds

Norwich and Leeds drew 1-1 in Championship on October 1, 2024.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.