Leeds 4–0 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Leeds

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Norwich

C. Summerville 68'

G. Rutter 40'

J. Piroe 20'

I. Gruev 7'

5/16/2024

Championship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsElland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leeds53%

×Draw26%

Norwich21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.87

Leeds

1.53

Norwich

0.87

Leeds creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 35 away

1.78

creates per match

1.30

0.44

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Leeds

1.78

Norwich

1.30

allows per match

Leeds

0.44

Norwich

1.28

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Leeds+0.22scores more

Norwich+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

79%

Leeds or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

47%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

27%

Norwich wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

78%

Leeds 2+ goals

45%

Leeds 3+ goals

20%

Norwich 1+ goals

58%

Norwich 2+ goals

22%

Norwich 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

71%

Norwich (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.44 · 6 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.78 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

Norwich attack 1.30 + Leeds defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leeds scores more

53%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

21%

Leeds at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Summerville

Leeds · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

20'

37'

40'

46'

Borja Sainz← J. Sargent

54'

Ilia Gruev

56'

Georginio Rutter

63'

S. McCallum← B. Gibson

63'

C. Fassnacht← D. Giannoulis

68'

C. Summerville↳ J. Firpo

69'

D. James← W. Gnonto

74'

Mateo Joseph← J. Piroe

74'

C. Roberts← G. Rutter

75'

J. Anthony← C. Summerville

81'

J. Sørensen← J. Rowe

81'

S. van Hooijdonk← A. Barnes

83'

L. Cooper← I. Gruev

90+1'

Kenny McLean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsNorwich

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots4

8Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots4

11On Target1

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

15Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

544Total Passes391

479Accurate Passes323

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Championship: Leeds 4–0 Norwich

Leeds beat Norwich 4-0 in Championship on May 16, 2024.

Goals: I. Gruev (7'), J. Piroe (20'), G. Rutter (40'), C. Summerville (68').

Leeds controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.

Leeds vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Leeds 4–0 Norwich