Norwich 4–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Cardiff

S. Duffy 67'

Borja Sainz 23'

M. Núñez 17', 13'

Y. Salech 84', 56' (pen)

5/3/2025

Championship · Round 46Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Norwich48%

×Draw27%

Cardiff25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.94

Norwich

1.40

Cardiff

0.94

Norwich creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

1.42

creates per match

0.74

1.14

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Norwich

1.42

Cardiff

0.74

allows per match

Norwich

1.14

Cardiff

1.39

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.03on par

Cardiff+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

75%

Norwich or Cardiff

73%

Draw or Cardiff

52%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

23%

Cardiff wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

75%

Norwich 2+ goals

41%

Norwich 3+ goals

17%

Cardiff 1+ goals

61%

Cardiff 2+ goals

24%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

65%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.42 + Cardiff defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cardiff attack 0.74 + Norwich defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Norwich scores more

48%

level

27%

Cardiff scores more

25%

Norwich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Núñez

Norwich · M

9.5

Match Events

10'

13'

16'

17'

21'

J. Bagan← D. Turnbull

23'

Borja Sainz↳ M. Núñez

33'

36'

42'

46'

56'

Y. SalechPenalty

59'

J. Sørensen← R. McConville

59'

O. Hernández← J. Stacey

64'

Joel Bagan

67'

S. Duffy↳ J. Wright

68'

O. Schwartau← A. Forson

69'

T. Nyakuhwa← R. Kpakio

69'

C. Willock← A. Robertson

73'

Callum Doyle

84'

Y. Salech↳ C. O'Dowda

90+3'

V. Reyes← A. Gunn

90+3'

J. Córdoba← S. Duffy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichCardiff

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots19

2.97Expected Goals (xG)1.77

6Corners9

13Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots19

8On Target6

10Off Target5

4Blocked8

13Inside Box15

9Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

557Total Passes308

511Accurate Passes264

92%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Norwich vs Cardiff

Norwich beat Cardiff 4-2 in Championship on May 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Núñez (13', 17'), Borja Sainz (23'), Y. Salech (56' pen, 84'), S. Duffy (67').

Norwich controlled possession (64%) and registered 22 shots to 19.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Norwich vs Cardiff