Cardiff 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

C. O'Dowda 90+3'

C. Robinson 89'

Borja Sainz 52'

11/2/2024

Championship · Round 13Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cardiff28%

×Draw26%

Norwich46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.50

Cardiff

1.11

Norwich

1.50

Norwich creates 35% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

1.03

creates per match

1.62

1.39

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Cardiff

1.03

Norwich

1.62

allows per match

Cardiff

1.39

Norwich

1.20

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Cardiff-0.20scores less

Norwich+0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

54%

Cardiff or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

72%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

11%

Norwich wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

67%

Cardiff 2+ goals

30%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Norwich 1+ goals

78%

Norwich 2+ goals

44%

Norwich 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

38%

Norwich (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Norwich defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Norwich attack 1.62 + Cardiff defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cardiff scores more

28%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

46%

Norwich at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. O'Dowda

Cardiff · D

8.7

Match Events

42'

Kellen Fisher

45+1'

Andy Rinomhota

52'

Borja Sainz↳ C. Doyle

54'

David Turnbull

62'

C. Robinson← A. El Ghazi

63'

B. Chrisene← K. Fisher

63'

J. Stacey← G. Forsyth

75'

A. Forson← J. Sørensen

75'

G. Hanley← O. Schwartau

76'

C. Ashford← C. Willock

77'

Callum O'Dowda

82'

José Córdoba

83'

J. Daland← A. Rinomhota

86'

K. Gordon← A. Crnac

89'

C. Robinson↳ C. O'Dowda

90+3'

C. O'Dowda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffNorwich

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots16

0.64Expected Goals (xG)1.73

4Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target6

1Off Target3

5Blocked7

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

389Total Passes540

332Accurate Passes474

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.84Goals Prevented-0.84

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Norwich

Cardiff beat Norwich 2-1 in Championship on November 2, 2024.

Goals: Borja Sainz (52'), C. Robinson (89'), C. O'Dowda (90+3').

Norwich controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Norwich