Norwich 2–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff

T. Cantwell 70'

E. Buendía 27'

12/19/2020

Championship · Round 20Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Norwich45%

×Draw26%

Cardiff29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.09

Norwich

1.43

Cardiff

1.09

Norwich creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.49

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Norwich

1.49

Cardiff

0.85

allows per match

Norwich

1.33

Cardiff

1.36

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.04on par

Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

71%

Norwich or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

55%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

22%

Cardiff wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

76%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

17%

Cardiff 1+ goals

66%

Cardiff 2+ goals

30%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

61%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 32 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.49 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Norwich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more

45%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

29%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

8.9

Match Events

27'

E. Buendía↳ K. McLean

54'

Curtis Nelson

57'

Sheyi Ojo

66'

J. Hoilett← M. Pack

70'

T. Cantwell↳ E. Buendía

77'

M. Harris← S. Ojo

81'

M. Stiepermann← M. Vrančić

82'

Leandro Bacuna

84'

K. Dowell← E. Buendía

90'

Harry Wilson

90+2'

J. Hugill← T. Pukki

90+2'

A. Tettey← M. Aarons

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichCardiff

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots10

6Corners7

14Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

489Total Passes289

388Accurate Passes196

79%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3