Norwich 0–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol City

N. Wells 63'

A. Mehmeti 16'

11/9/2024

Championship · Round 15Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Norwich43%

×Draw25%

Bristol City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.24

Norwich

1.49

Bristol City

1.24

Norwich creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

1.60

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Norwich

1.60

Bristol City

1.06

allows per match

Norwich

1.42

Bristol City

1.37

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.01on par

Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

68%

Norwich or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

57%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

77%

Norwich 2+ goals

44%

Norwich 3+ goals

19%

Bristol City 1+ goals

71%

Bristol City 2+ goals

35%

Bristol City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

58%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.42 · 23 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.60 + Bristol City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bristol City attack 1.06 + Norwich defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norwich scores more

43%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

32%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Doyle

Norwich · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

A. Mehmeti↳ H. Roberts

36'

Kellen Fisher

59'

J. Stacey← J. Sørensen

59'

B. Chrisene← J. Córdoba

63'

N. Wells↳ J. Knight

66'

Y. Hirakawa← G. Earthy

69'

Borja Sainz

76'

A. Forson← O. Schwartau

82'

F. Mayulu← N. Wells

87'

C. Fassnacht← A. Ben Slimane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBristol

Overview

66%Possession34%

9Total Shots9

0.28Expected Goals (xG)0.88

3Corners3

16Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target2

4Off Target2

2Blocked5

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

599Total Passes303

505Accurate Passes217

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.11Goals Prevented0.11

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3