Bristol City 2–4 Norwich: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Norwich

S. Bell 90'

S. Morsy 2'

J. Cordoba 79'

M. Toure 75', 70', 51'

4/18/2026

Championship · Round 43Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Bristol City41%

×Draw26%

Norwich33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Bristol City

1.39

Norwich

1.23

Bristol City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

1.31

creates per match

1.22

1.23

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Bristol City

1.31

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Bristol City

1.23

Norwich

1.47

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.16scores more

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

67%

Bristol City or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

59%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

75%

Bristol City 2+ goals

40%

Bristol City 3+ goals

16%

Norwich 1+ goals

71%

Norwich 2+ goals

35%

Norwich 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

55%

Norwich (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Norwich attack 1.22 + Bristol City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol City scores more

41%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

33%

Bristol City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Cordoba

Norwich · D

8.5

Match Events

2'

51'

54'

65'

65'

65'

S. Bell← M. Sykes

70'

M. Toure↳ O. Schwartau

72'

Kenny McLean

75'

M. Toure↳ P. Maghoma

77'

A. Slimane← P. Maghoma

77'

M. Kvistgaarden← M. Toure

78'

S. Armstrong← S. Morsy

79'

J. Cordoba↳ K. McLean

83'

E. Mundle Smith← A. Ahmed

84'

A. Forson← O. Schwartau

87'

G. Tanner← R. McCrorie

90+1'

J. Wright← K. McLean

90'

S. Bell↳ D. Burgzorg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolNorwich

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots19

1.43Expected Goals (xG)2.14

2Corners10

8Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots19

6On Target9

1Off Target6

2Blocked4

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

389Total Passes458

323Accurate Passes391

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

-0.32Goals Prevented-0.32

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

7Offsides0

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Norwich

Norwich beat Bristol City 4-2 in Championship on April 18, 2026.

Goals: S. Morsy (2'), M. Toure (51', 70', 75'), J. Cordoba (79'), S. Bell (90').

Norwich controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Norwich