Norwich 3–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bristol City

K. McLean 66', 36'

B. Godfrey 55'

C. O'Dowda 37'

J. Paterson 12'

2/23/2019

Championship · Round 34Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Norwich43%

×Draw26%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.18

Norwich

1.44

Bristol City

1.18

Norwich creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 62 away

1.54

creates per match

1.10

1.26

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Norwich

1.54

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Norwich

1.26

Bristol City

1.34

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

69%

Norwich or Bristol City

74%

Draw or Bristol City

57%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

76%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

33%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

58%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norwich scores more

43%

level

26%

Bristol City scores more

31%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. McLean

Norwich · M

8.5

Match Events

12'

J. Paterson↳ F. Diedhiou

36'

K. McLean↳ T. Pukki

37'

C. O'Dowda

38'

Tomáš Kalas

55'

B. Godfrey↳ M. Aarons

66'

K. McLean

70'

Tom Trybull

71'

M. Taylor← F. Diedhiou

71'

K. Palmer← J. Dasilva

71'

M. Watkins← J. Paterson

85'

J. Rhodes← T. Pukki

89'

M. Vrančić← E. Buendía

90'

Kasey Palmer

90'

Marley Watkins

90+4'

T. Klose← O. Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBristol

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots12

10Corners4

7Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots12

8On Target6

10Off Target4

5Blocked2

16Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

459Total Passes319

355Accurate Passes227

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0