Norwich 1–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bournemouth

T. Pukki 33' (pen)

1/18/2020

Premier League · Round 23Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Norwich36%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.65

Norwich

1.53

Bournemouth

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 123 away

1.05

creates per match

1.16

2.15

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Norwich

1.05

Bournemouth

1.16

allows per match

Norwich

2.15

Bournemouth

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

59%

Norwich or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

64%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

17%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

78%

Norwich 2+ goals

45%

Norwich 3+ goals

20%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

81%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

49%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

47%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.05 + Bournemouth defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bournemouth attack 1.16 + Norwich defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norwich scores more

36%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

41%

Bournemouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

Steve Cook

33'

T. PukkiPenalty

34'

S. Francis← H. Wilson

50'

76'

77'

77'

78'

78'

85'

86'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBournemouth

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots6

4Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots6

5On Target3

5Off Target1

6Blocked2

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

635Total Passes316

535Accurate Passes214

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

0Offsides3

Premier League: Norwich 1–0 Bournemouth

Norwich beat Bournemouth 1-0 in Premier League on January 18, 2020.

Goals: T. Pukki (33' pen).

Norwich controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Norwich 1–0 Bournemouth