Bournemouth 0–0 Norwich: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

10/19/2019

Premier League · Round 9Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bournemouth55%

×Draw24%

Norwich21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.97

Bournemouth

1.72

Norwich

0.97

Bournemouth creates 77% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 49 away

1.35

creates per match

0.55

1.39

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.35

Norwich

0.55

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.39

Norwich

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

79%

Bournemouth or Norwich

76%

Draw or Norwich

45%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

30%

Norwich wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

82%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

51%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

25%

Norwich 1+ goals

62%

Norwich 2+ goals

25%

Norwich 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

72%

Norwich (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 132 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.35 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Norwich attack 0.55 + Bournemouth defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bournemouth scores more

55%

level

24%

Norwich scores more

21%

Bournemouth at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

I. Amadou

Norwich · D

7.6

Match Events

29'

Jamal Lewis

50'

T. Trybull← B. Godfrey

62'

J. King← D. Solanke

68'

Kenny McLean

69'

A. Groeneveld← H. Wilson

70'

Adam Smith

81'

O. Hernández← T. Cantwell

86'

Teemu Pukki

90'

D. Srbeny← M. Leitner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthNorwich

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots10

6Corners7

8Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target1

6Off Target6

3Blocked3

5Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

407Total Passes469

326Accurate Passes378

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2