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Norwich vs Bolton — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
14:00
Bolton
Bolton
9/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Carrow Road
Big match
55%
Norwich
model favours
55%24%21%

80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Norwich55%
×Draw24%
Bolton21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.69
Bolton
0.94

Norwich creates 80% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 53 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.71
Bolton
0.75

allows per match

Norwich
1.13
Bolton
1.68

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
79%
Norwich or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
45%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
30%
Bolton wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
82%
Norwich 2+ goals
50%
Norwich 3+ goals
24%
Bolton 1+ goals
61%
Bolton 2+ goals
24%
Bolton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
72%
Bolton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.71 + Bolton defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bolton attack 0.75 + Norwich defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norwich scores more
55%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
21%

Norwich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Norwich
Balanced
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
55%PossessionBiggest gap41%
82%Pass accuracy66%
12.4Shots9.5
1.35xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichBolton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Norwich
1
Draws
1
Bolton
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
4–03–20–01–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWDWL
Bolton
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich face Bolton (Championship)

Championship returns with Norwich hosting Bolton. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Norwich host Bolton at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.