Norwich 3–2 Bolton: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

T. Pukki 90+3'

M. Stiepermann 59'

M. Vrančić 39'

M. Beevers 88'

Sammy Ameobi 63'

12/8/2018

Championship · Round 21Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Norwich55%

×Draw24%

Bolton21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.99

Norwich

1.74

Bolton

0.99

Norwich creates 76% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 20 away

1.53

creates per match

0.75

1.24

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Norwich

1.53

Bolton

0.75

allows per match

Norwich

1.24

Bolton

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

79%

Norwich or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

45%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

30%

Bolton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

82%

Norwich 2+ goals

52%

Norwich 3+ goals

25%

Bolton 1+ goals

63%

Bolton 2+ goals

26%

Bolton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

72%

Bolton (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.53 + Bolton defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bolton attack 0.75 + Norwich defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norwich scores more

55%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

21%

Norwich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Vrančić

Norwich · M

8.1

Match Events

14'

Sammy Ameobi

39'

M. Vrančić↳ M. Aarons

59'

M. Stiepermann

60'

L. Dyer← C. Noone

63'

Sammy Ameobi↳ A. Taylor

71'

J. Magennis← W. Buckley

79'

G. O'Neil← P. Olkowski

83'

O. Hernández← E. Buendía

84'

Gary O'Neil

86'

Mario Vrančić

87'

J. Rhodes← M. Stiepermann

88'

90'

90'

90+6'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBolton

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots12

6Corners0

7Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots12

7On Target4

6Off Target5

8Blocked3

16Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

68%Possession32%

659Total Passes302

562Accurate Passes205

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1