Bolton 0–4 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Bolton

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Norwich

T. Pukki 56', 8'

E. Buendía 34'

M. Stiepermann 25'

2/16/2019

Championship · Round 33University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolton30%

×Draw25%

Norwich45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

Bolton

1.25

Norwich

1.60

Norwich creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

1.14

creates per match

1.44

1.76

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Bolton

1.14

Norwich

1.44

allows per match

Bolton

1.76

Norwich

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

55%

Bolton or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

70%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

13%

Norwich wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

71%

Bolton 2+ goals

36%

Bolton 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

80%

Norwich 2+ goals

47%

Norwich 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

40%

Norwich (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.14 + Norwich defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Norwich attack 1.44 + Bolton defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bolton scores more

30%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

45%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Pukki

Norwich · F

9.5

Match Events

8'

T. Pukki↳ M. Stiepermann

25'

M. Stiepermann↳ T. Pukki

29'

Craig Noone

34'

E. Buendía↳ K. McLean

46'

S. Ameobi← C. Donaldson

46'

J. Williams← J. Vela

56'

T. Pukki↳ C. Zimmermann

79'

M. Leitner← M. Stiepermann

88'

W. Buckley← C. Noone

88'

D. Srbeny← T. Pukki

89'

G. Hanley← J. Lewis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonNorwich

Overview

30%Possession70%

11Total Shots23

3Corners8

20Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots23

3On Target12

6Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box18

4Outside Box5

Passing

30%Possession70%

319Total Passes749

229Accurate Passes668

72%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0