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Norton & Stockton W vs Durham Cestria W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Norton & Stockton W
Norton & Stockton W
FT
1 – 4
Durham Cestria W
Durham Cestria W
11/13/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundNorton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Norton & Stockton W40%
×Draw23%
Durham Cestria W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norton & Stockton W
1.74
Durham Cestria W
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Norton & Stockton W
1.33
Durham Cestria W
1.00

allows per match

Norton & Stockton W
2.33
Durham Cestria W
2.14

finishing

Norton & Stockton W+0.00on par
Durham Cestria W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norton & Stockton W ↓

Durham Cestria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Norton & Stockton W or draw
63%
Norton & Stockton W or Durham Cestria W
77%
Draw or Durham Cestria W
60%

Winning margin

Norton & Stockton W wins by 2+
21%
Durham Cestria W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Norton & Stockton W 1+ goals
82%
Norton & Stockton W 2+ goals
52%
Norton & Stockton W 3+ goals
25%
Durham Cestria W 1+ goals
81%
Durham Cestria W 2+ goals
50%
Durham Cestria W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Norton & Stockton W (draw refunded)
52%
Durham Cestria W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norton & Stockton W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Durham Cestria W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norton & Stockton W attack 1.33 + Durham Cestria W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Durham Cestria W attack 1.00 + Norton & Stockton W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norton & Stockton W scores more
40%
level
23%
Durham Cestria W scores more
37%

Norton & Stockton W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Norton & Stockton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Norton & Stockton W 1–4 Durham Cestria W

Durham Cestria W beat Norton & Stockton W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Norton in Stockton-on-Tees, County Durham.