Durham Cestria W 4–0 Norton & Stockton W

Durham Cestria W

4 – 0

Norton & Stockton W

11/3/2024

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMaiden Castle Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Durham Cestria W67%

×Draw15%

Norton & Stockton W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Durham Cestria WExpected goals in this matchNorton & Stockton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.71

2.00

Durham Cestria W

3.71

Norton & Stockton W

2.00

Durham Cestria W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

4.75

creates per match

3.00

1.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Durham Cestria W

4.75

Norton & Stockton W

3.00

allows per match

Durham Cestria W

1.00

Norton & Stockton W

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durham Cestria W+0.00on par

Norton & Stockton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durham Cestria W ↓

Norton & Stockton W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Durham Cestria W or draw

82%

Durham Cestria W or Norton & Stockton W

85%

Draw or Norton & Stockton W

33%

Winning margin

Durham Cestria W wins by 2+

49%

Norton & Stockton W wins by 2+

Team goals

Durham Cestria W 1+ goals

97%

Durham Cestria W 2+ goals

87%

Durham Cestria W 3+ goals

69%

Norton & Stockton W 1+ goals

86%

Norton & Stockton W 2+ goals

59%

Norton & Stockton W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Durham Cestria W (draw refunded)

78%

Norton & Stockton W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Durham Cestria W at home — creates 4.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Norton & Stockton W away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Durham Cestria W attack 4.75 + Norton & Stockton W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.71

Norton & Stockton W attack 3.00 + Durham Cestria W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Durham Cestria W scores more

67%

level

15%

Norton & Stockton W scores more

18%

Durham Cestria W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Durham Cestria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff