Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CAI vs Independiente Neuquén — Torneo Federal A 2018

CAI
CAI
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
J. Gaitán 62'
M. Rilo 39'
11/9/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CAI58%
×Draw25%
Independiente Neuquén17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAI
1.56
Independiente Neuquén
0.71

CAI creates 120% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

creates per match

CAI
1.50
Independiente Neuquén
0.63

allows per match

CAI
0.79
Independiente Neuquén
1.63

finishing

CAI+0.00on par
Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Independiente Neuquén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CAI or draw
83%
CAI or Independiente Neuquén
75%
Draw or Independiente Neuquén
42%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+
31%
Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals
79%
CAI 2+ goals
46%
CAI 3+ goals
21%
Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
51%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
16%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)
77%
Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.50 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.63 + CAI defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CAI scores more
58%
level
25%
Independiente Neuquén scores more
17%

CAI at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Rilo
62'
J. Gaitán

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAI vs Independiente Neuquén

CAI beat Independiente Neuquén 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 9, 2014.

Goals: M. Rilo (39'), J. Gaitán (62').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia in Comodoro Rivadavia, Provincia del Chubut.