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Independiente Neuquén vs CAI — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CAI
CAI
M. Brito 76', 60'
L. Reynoso 37'
9/28/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 7Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Independiente Neuquén40%
×Draw26%
CAI34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
1.40
CAI
1.25

Independiente Neuquén creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.17
CAI
1.23

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.28
CAI
1.62

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

CAI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
66%
Independiente Neuquén or CAI
74%
Draw or CAI
60%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
19%
CAI wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
75%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
41%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
17%
CAI 1+ goals
71%
CAI 2+ goals
36%
CAI 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
55%
CAI (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 1.17 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

CAI attack 1.23 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
40%
level
26%
CAI scores more
34%

Independiente Neuquén at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independiente Neuquén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
L. Reynoso
60'
M. Brito
76'
M. Brito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Neuquén vs CAI

CAI beat Independiente Neuquén 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 28, 2014.

Goals: L. Reynoso (37'), M. Brito (60', 76').

The match was played at Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno in Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén.