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Cajazeiras vs UNIRB — Baiano - 2 2019

Cajazeiras
Cajazeiras
FT
0 – 0
UNIRB
UNIRB
5/12/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 10Estádio 25 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cajazeiras51%
×Draw28%
UNIRB21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cajazeiras
1.39
UNIRB
0.79

Cajazeiras creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cajazeiras
1.60
UNIRB
0.58

allows per match

Cajazeiras
1.00
UNIRB
1.17

finishing

Cajazeiras+0.00on par
UNIRB+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cajazeiras ↓

UNIRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cajazeiras or draw
79%
Cajazeiras or UNIRB
72%
Draw or UNIRB
49%

Winning margin

Cajazeiras wins by 2+
25%
UNIRB wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cajazeiras 1+ goals
75%
Cajazeiras 2+ goals
40%
Cajazeiras 3+ goals
16%
UNIRB 1+ goals
55%
UNIRB 2+ goals
19%
UNIRB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cajazeiras (draw refunded)
71%
UNIRB (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cajazeiras at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

UNIRB away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cajazeiras attack 1.60 + UNIRB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

UNIRB attack 0.58 + Cajazeiras defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cajazeiras scores more
51%
level
28%
UNIRB scores more
21%

Cajazeiras at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cajazeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Cajazeiras 0–0 UNIRB

Cajazeiras and UNIRB drew 0-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 25 de Junho in Cachoeira, Bahia.